Why do the institutional outcomes of armed separatist conflicts vary? Separatist conflicts have diverse institutional effects. Though many separatists hope to create sovereign states, few achieve their aims. More often, their conflicts lead to forms of intra-state autonomy, independent but unrecognized de facto states, or territories under foreign occupation. These institutional outcomes are shaped by the balance of leverage between separatists and the governments they challenge, where leverage corresponds to the relative distribution of the means of coercion and legitimation. The probability that separatists will settle for autonomy or fight for independence, and the likely institutional effects of this strategic choice, are determined by the relative capability of separatists to coerce the central government into conceding control over territory and legitimate their claims to self-determination in international society. I highlight three causal processes as fundamental to shaping the balance of leverage: state crises at the outset of separatist conflicts; the dynamics of secessionist warfare; and externalization. Within each process, I identify mechanisms that impact pathways to secession through their effects on the distribution of the means coercion and legitimation. The theory is illustrated through case studies of separatist trajectories in three world regions: Southern Sudan and Somaliland in the Horn of Africa; Kosovo and the wars of Yugoslav secession in the Balkans; and Chechnya and Nagorno Karabakh in the post-Soviet wars in the Caucasus. This cross-regional research design uncovers significant regional variation in separatist trajectories. In explaining different pathways to secession, the research highlights the different sources and effects of coercion and legitimacy as forms of power wielded by non-state actors seeking an entrance into international society. Few groups manage to reconcile the military and diplomatic exigencies of armed separatist struggle. Nonetheless, separatists often have the power to significantly transform governance arrangements.

Last modified

• 10/02/2018

Creator

• Lee Seymour

DOI

• https://doi.org/10.21985/N2SM98

Subject

• Political Science

Keyword

• separatism
• secession
• recognition
• self-determination
• legitimacy
• civil wars

Date created

• 2008-12-05

Resource type

• Dissertation

Rights statement

• In Copyright